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Weekly Recap: The implications of strong new car sales

New car sales are on a roll in the United States this year, and analysts are optimistic the industry will maintain its torrid pace. Sales increased 1.6 percent in May and reached an eye-popping seasonally-adjusted selling rate of 17.8 million, the strongest pace since July 2005, according TrueCar research. That positions the industry for one of its strongest years ever, as consumer confidence, low interest rates, low fuel costs, and an influx of new products propel gains. In addition to the positive economic factors, May also featured warmer weather across much of the US, an extra weekend, and it came on the heels of relatively weak April sales. Analysts suggest income tax refunds and the promise of summer driving and vacations also traditionally help May sales. "While 2015 will be one of the best years in the history of the US industry, in some ways it may be the very best ever," IHS Automotive analyst Tom Libby wrote in a commentary. "Not only are new vehicle registration volumes approaching the record levels of the early 2000s, but now registrations and production capacity are much more closely aligned so the industry is much more healthy." Capacity, an indicator of the auto sector's health, is also expected to grow. Morgan Stanley predicts it will eventually hit at least 20 million units per year, as many companies, including General Motors, Ford, Tesla, and Volvo are investing in new or upgraded factories. "The best predictor of US auto sales is the growth in capacity, and frankly, we're losing count of all of the additions – there's literally something new and big every week," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. Transaction prices, another telling indicator, also continue to show strength. They rose four percent in May to $32,452 per vehicle, and incentives dropped $10 per vehicle to $2,661, TrueCar said. "New vehicle sector and segment preference indicates consumers are confident about the economy and their finances," TrueCar president John Krafcik said in a statement. Still, Morgan Stanley noted the robust sales did little to immediately impact automaker stock prices and suggested it might be a prime time to sell if sales reach the 18-million pace. "Perhaps the biggest reason may be that investors have seen this movie before," the firm wrote.

Car owners getting more irritated with their repair experiences, study says

The J.D. Power U.S. Customer Service Index Study (CSI) is a barometer of a vehicle owner's happiness with the service experience. While it wasn't all bad in the 2023 study, the overall owner satisfaction score dropped. This year's tally of 846 out of 1,000 is two points down from 2022, the 43-year-old study's first decline in more than 28 years, and one point down from 2021. However, the overall score remains well up from the pre-pandemic scores of 821 in 2018 and 837 in 2020. The study claims the stumbling block is the horde of BEV launches. The flood into the new energy space has created a recall rate among EVs that's more than double the rate for ICE vehicles. Furthermore, dealership service department knowledge of EVs isn't on par with internal combustion engine expertise, leaving EV owners less satisfied with service advisors compared to ICE owners. Chris Sutton, VP of automotive retail at J.D. Power, said, "As training programs for service advisors and technicians evolve, EV service quality and customer experience must address both the vehicle and the unique customer needs. The EV segment has the potential to spur massive convenience improvements in how customers service their vehicles — but weÂ’re not seeing the benefits yet." Matters are slightly worse for all owners, though, with labor and parts shortages contributing to longer wait times for service appointments. The CSI study surveys owners and lessees of one- to three-year-old vehicles to gauge their happiness with service at franchised dealer or aftermarket service facilities for maintenance or repair work. The criteria in order of importance are service quality (32%); service advisor (19%); vehicle pick-up (19%); service facility (15%); and service initiation (15%). Lexus retains the top spot for luxury brands, giving it three wins in four years. The Japanese automaker won in 2020 as well, its run interrupted by Porsche in 2021. Cadillac, Infiniti and Acura complete the luxury top 5.  For mass-market cars, Mitsubishi wins again after a victory in 2021 and falling to fourth last year. It's followed by Mazda, Buick, Subaru and Mini.  Considering the different service needs and service experience of different body styles, the study has broken results out by segment for the first time. Lexus earned a second victory thanks to winning the premium SUV segment, and Mitsubishi earned a second victory by winning the mass-market SUV/minivan category.

GM takes 2020 full-size pickup sales crown

It's no secret that 2020 was an unconventional year for auto sales. Extenuating circumstances or not, it was a year of upheaval even for ever-resilient (and ever-profitable) pickups, with General Motors taking the crown from Ford in the full-size segment.  The Ford F-Series still outsold every other full-size pickup nameplate in the country by a significant margin. It's only when you combine GM's Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra variants that you get a number that exceeds Ford's. This isn't really a new phenomenon, either. In fact, it was only somewhat recently that Ford took the overall full-size crown away from GM, and not only did Ford widen the gap in recent years, but Ram has once again become a legitimate challenger, even managing to outsell the Silverado by a healthy margin in 2019, but never coming close to the F-Series in terms of total volume.  But, 2020 being 2020, things got weird yet again. Ram remains relevant, of course, but Ford got caught with its pants down thanks to the one-two punch of COVID and the generational changeover of the core F-150 model, which resulted in a production interruption as the company's assembly facilities transitioned from building the old 2020 model to the new-for-2021. This perfect storm, as it turns out, was sufficient for GM to walk away with the full-size crown. See for yourself: Full-size 2020 pickup sales: GM total: 847,110 F-Series: 787,422 Silverado: 594,094 Ram: 563,676 Sierra: 253,016 Tundra: 109,203 Titan: 26,439 As you can see, Ram slipped back behind Silverado, slotting comfortably into third place. The Silverado 1500 had a flat year, but the heavy- and medium-duty variants bucked the trend and contributed to a slight uptick in sales for the nameplate, while F-Series tumbled more than 12% (nearly 110,000 units), opening the door for GM to steam ahead.  There were similarly significant shakeups in the midsize truck segment. First, 2020 was the first full year of retail sales for the Gladiator pickup, which surged to fourth place behind the stalwart Tacoma, Ranger and Colorado. GM's combined sales of the Colorado and Canyon are good enough for second place by manufacturer, but nowhere close to what it would take to dethrone Toyota.