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Weekly Recap: The implications of strong new car sales

New car sales are on a roll in the United States this year, and analysts are optimistic the industry will maintain its torrid pace. Sales increased 1.6 percent in May and reached an eye-popping seasonally-adjusted selling rate of 17.8 million, the strongest pace since July 2005, according TrueCar research. That positions the industry for one of its strongest years ever, as consumer confidence, low interest rates, low fuel costs, and an influx of new products propel gains. In addition to the positive economic factors, May also featured warmer weather across much of the US, an extra weekend, and it came on the heels of relatively weak April sales. Analysts suggest income tax refunds and the promise of summer driving and vacations also traditionally help May sales. "While 2015 will be one of the best years in the history of the US industry, in some ways it may be the very best ever," IHS Automotive analyst Tom Libby wrote in a commentary. "Not only are new vehicle registration volumes approaching the record levels of the early 2000s, but now registrations and production capacity are much more closely aligned so the industry is much more healthy." Capacity, an indicator of the auto sector's health, is also expected to grow. Morgan Stanley predicts it will eventually hit at least 20 million units per year, as many companies, including General Motors, Ford, Tesla, and Volvo are investing in new or upgraded factories. "The best predictor of US auto sales is the growth in capacity, and frankly, we're losing count of all of the additions – there's literally something new and big every week," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. Transaction prices, another telling indicator, also continue to show strength. They rose four percent in May to $32,452 per vehicle, and incentives dropped $10 per vehicle to $2,661, TrueCar said. "New vehicle sector and segment preference indicates consumers are confident about the economy and their finances," TrueCar president John Krafcik said in a statement. Still, Morgan Stanley noted the robust sales did little to immediately impact automaker stock prices and suggested it might be a prime time to sell if sales reach the 18-million pace. "Perhaps the biggest reason may be that investors have seen this movie before," the firm wrote.

GM's Ultium EV platform finally shows up in Q3 sales numbers

General Motors has heralded its Ultium battery-electric platform as the future of its passenger car and truck lineup, but for the first two years of its existence, its impact on the marketplace has been virtually nonexistent. Well, that finally changed in the third quarter of 2023, and while the cars based on this architecture don't represent anywhere near the volume of GM's broader combustion portfolio, we're reaching a point where Ultium products are finally in view (and in the hands) of real-world shoppers. At this point, five U.S.-market Ultium models are in production: the GMC Hummer EV, Cadillac Lyriq, Chevrolet Blazer & Silverado EV, and BrightDrop Zevo 600. If you're not familiar with that last one, that's OK; it's a commercial product that you likely won't see on the road for some time. Together, these four combined for 4,257 sales in the third quarter alone — up from 2,663 for the entire first half of the year. While that may not seem like a significant uptick when viewed from altitude, the quarter-to-quarter numbers paint a clearer picture.  Let's toss out the stragglers first. The Chevy Blazer EV, and Silverado EV for example, are barely in production. GM delivered 19 Blazers and 18 Silverados in the third quarter and that's the entirety of their production runs so far. Likewise, GM's BrightDrop Zevo 600 delivery van effectively exists apart from the consumer marketplace, so its contribution of just 35 units can be set aside too. That leaves us the two you've heard of: the GMC Hummer EV and Cadillac Lyriq — models with high sticker prices and long reservation queues.  Through the second quarter (remember, we're talking six months here), GMC sold 49 Hummer EVs. No typo. In the three months that made up the third quarter, GM moved 1,167 of them. Not only is that a dramatic improvement over the first half, but it's more Hummers than GMC sold in the entirety of 2022 (854). Lyriq's improvement was less eye-popping on paper, but after moving just 122 total units in 2022 and 2,013 of them in the first half of 2023, Cadillac managed to up that figure to 3,018 units in the third quarter alone.  GM is betting its short-term EV future on the Ultium platform, so these trends need to continue if that's going to be a profitable wager.

Chevy's low-cost pedestrian avoidance to debut on 2016 Malibu

The mainstreaming of safety technologies that began on luxury vehicles will get a big boost from General Motors later this year. The General says it plans to offer 22 driver assistance systems across its product portfolio of 2016 models, starting with the redesigned Chevrolet Malibu - the one that we know will keep tabs on teenagers for the benefit of parents. Pedestrian avoidance will be another of its available options. Instead of kitting the sedan out with numerous and expensive radar arrays, the GM system uses the camera mounted next to the rearview mirror that is already used for the lane-keeping function. New software lets it detect pedestrians, and when it detects a potential collision with one, it can alert the driver and brake autonomously if the driver doesn't react. Eventually, engineers want to give it the ability to do the same with cyclists. Because it uses existing hardware updated with new code, GM says the application costs "a few hundred dollars." GM demonstrated the Front Pedestrian Braking preventing a crash with a dummy pedestrian at speeds up to 15 miles per hour. Automotive News reports that it will reduce the severity of impact up to 40 miles per hour, but "may not be of much use in collisions at higher speeds." That feature will also join the options list of the Cadillac CT6. The press release below has more on GM's driver tech soon on the way. Related Video: GM Paving Way to Smarter and Safer Driving at All-New Active Safety Test Area 22 crash-avoidance technologies offered on 2016 Chevrolet, Buick, GMC and Cadillac models MILFORD, Mich. 2015-07-24 – Chevrolet, Buick, GMC and Cadillac will offer 22 different active safety technologies across their 2016 model year U.S. lineups, ranging from driver alerts to those that automatically intervene and assist the driver in critical situations. Safety engineers will develop and test these and other safety technologies for products around the world at GM's new, 52-acre Active Safety Test Area at its Milford Proving Ground near Detroit. The $14 million facility officially opened Friday. "Our comprehensive safety strategy of helping customers before, during and after a crash continues," said Jeff Boyer, vice president of GM Global Vehicle Safety.