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GM CEO Mary Barra predicts mass electrification will take decades

General Motors is allocating a substantial amount of money to the development of electric technology, but Mary Barra, the firm's CEO, conceded that battery-powered cars won't fully replace their gasoline-burning counterparts for several decades. She stressed the shift is ongoing, but she hinted it will be slower than many assume. "We believe the transition will happen over time," affirmed Barra on "Leadership Live with David Rubenstein," a talk show aired by Bloomberg Television. She added that not every car will be electric in 2040. "It will happen in a little bit longer period, but it will happen," she told the host. She was presumably talking about the United States market; the situation is markedly different in Europe and in China, where strict government regulations (and even stricter ones on the horizon) are accelerating the shift towards electric cars. On the surface, it doesn't look like General Motors has much invested in electrification; the only battery-powered model it sells in America in 2020 is the Chevrolet Bolt (pictured), which undeniably remains a niche vehicle. Sales totaled 16,418 units in 2019, meaning the Corvette beat it by about 1,500 sales. In comparison, Cadillac sold 35,424 examples of the aging last-generation Escalade during the same time period. And yet, the company isn't giving up. It has numerous electric models in the pipeline including a slightly larger version of the aforementioned Bolt, the much-hyped GMC Hummer pickup, and an electric crossover assigned to the Cadillac brand. These models (and others) will use the Ultium battery technology that General Motors is currently developing. Its engineers are also working on a modular platform capable of underpinning a wide variety of cars. Bringing these innovations to the market is a Herculean task. EVs may not take over for decades, but Barra and her team must believe their 2% market share will increase significantly in the coming years if they're approving these programs. Autonomous technology is even costlier, more complicated, and more time-consuming to develop. Barra nonetheless expects to see the first General Motors-built driverless vehicles on the road by 2025. "I definitely think it will happen within the next five years. Our Cruise team is continuing to develop technology so it's safer than a human driver. I think you'll see it clearly within five years," she said on the same talk show. Her statement is vague but realistic.

Trucks and tidbits from GM's earnings report

General Motors announced this morning that 2018 was a good year for it financially, thanks in large part to the company's performance in North America, which was predicated, according to the company, on "strong pricing, surging crossover sales, successful execution of the company's full-size truck launch, growth of GM Financial earnings, and disciplined cost control." GM reported full-year income of $8.1 billion and EBIT-adjusted income of $11.8 billion. Crossover sales in 2018 were 1,034,808, an increase of 7 percent compared to 2017 deliveries. Throw in the body-on-frame SUVs and the ute number is a total 1,295,700. But let's face it: It is the trucks that really matter. The Chevy Silverado and Colorado, the GMC Sierra and Canyon. Altogether, GM sold 973,463 pickups in the U.S. in 2018. Although Ford gets bragging rights for F-Series sales, GM gets to point out that it has a greater aggregate number. An important factor regarding the trucks and the reported income is that during the last quarter, more than 90 percent of the new 2019 trucks were crew cabs (which have a higher sticker), and at GMC more than 70 percent were Denali and AT4 models (which have even higher stickers). According to reporting by Bloomberg, GM's pickup trucks combine for $65 billion in annual revenue. Clearly when the 2018 sales of the Silverado — 585,581— dwarf the combined sales of both Buick (206,863) and Cadillac combined (154,702), pickups are what matter to the overall health of the company in a way that it is difficult to otherwise achieve. The "disciplined cost control" is something that is very much in the public eye right now, as the company is taking out thousands of its workers, and there is still the "unallocated" plant situation and other plants that will remain under capacity. The numbers in GM's earnings report probably made Unifor members' heads explode in consternation, coming fresh off their Super Bowl ad: " GM, you may have forgotten our generosity, but we'll never forget your greed." But there are a couple of curiosities in the full GM earnings release. One is that so far as its autonomous efforts go, it mentions only that (1) in the first quarter of 2018 Cruise introduced a production-ready autonomous vehicle, and (2) Cruise attracted $5 billion in external capital from SoftBank and Honda. Not a whole lot of love for autonomy. Good thing they have the trucks to fund the program, to say nothing of the external capital.

Chevy Express, GMC Savanna reportedly ending production for 2025

The oldest commercial vans on the market may only have a few years left, according to a report from Autoweek. The news outlet cited a "competitive analysis source" in saying that the Chevy Express and GMC Savanna commercial vans would be discontinued after the 2025 model year. They would then be replaced by a new electric van, likely Ultium-platform based, for the 2026 model year. We reached out to GM for comment, and this is the official statement sent to us: "We have said in the past that as part of GM’s larger EV acceleration plans that we will add two new vehicles to our commercial portfolio. The first is a full-sized battery electric cargo van and the second is a medium-duty truck that will put both Ultium and our Hydrotec hydrogen fuel cell technology to work. We have not disclosed timing, names or shared any other details, so any articles reporting more are purely speculative." The GM vans are mighty old, having been introduced for the 1996 model year. They've barely changed since then, having received just some facelifts and updated powertrains over the years. And with GM's electrification plans, we're not surprised that these vans will be on the way out. We do have some disagreement about the reported timeline for replacement, though. We suspect that the upcoming electric vans will overlap with the old vans for at least a year. The reason being that there are a lot of these vans on the road, and there are a lot of pieces of equipment that fit them. Box vans, buses and more have components that have been designed for the Express and Savanna. If you're a fleet that has invested in these components, you might not be ready to shift over to a whole new platform. So GM will probably want to give fleet buyers one last opportunity to replace any old vans before committing entirely to a new electric van platform. It will also be interesting to see what kind of market the GM electric vans enter. Ford already has its electric Transit on the way, and Stellantis will be launching the Ram ProMaster electric van next year. Those are both based on existing gas-powered vans. And GM itself has already delivered the first of its larger BrightDrop EV600 electric vans to FedEx. The coming GM vans will likely be new platforms, which could give them performance and range advantages, though the Ford and Stellantis vans will have the advantage of being compatible with equipment for the gas variants.