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Weekly Recap: The implications of strong new car sales

New car sales are on a roll in the United States this year, and analysts are optimistic the industry will maintain its torrid pace. Sales increased 1.6 percent in May and reached an eye-popping seasonally-adjusted selling rate of 17.8 million, the strongest pace since July 2005, according TrueCar research. That positions the industry for one of its strongest years ever, as consumer confidence, low interest rates, low fuel costs, and an influx of new products propel gains. In addition to the positive economic factors, May also featured warmer weather across much of the US, an extra weekend, and it came on the heels of relatively weak April sales. Analysts suggest income tax refunds and the promise of summer driving and vacations also traditionally help May sales. "While 2015 will be one of the best years in the history of the US industry, in some ways it may be the very best ever," IHS Automotive analyst Tom Libby wrote in a commentary. "Not only are new vehicle registration volumes approaching the record levels of the early 2000s, but now registrations and production capacity are much more closely aligned so the industry is much more healthy." Capacity, an indicator of the auto sector's health, is also expected to grow. Morgan Stanley predicts it will eventually hit at least 20 million units per year, as many companies, including General Motors, Ford, Tesla, and Volvo are investing in new or upgraded factories. "The best predictor of US auto sales is the growth in capacity, and frankly, we're losing count of all of the additions – there's literally something new and big every week," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. Transaction prices, another telling indicator, also continue to show strength. They rose four percent in May to $32,452 per vehicle, and incentives dropped $10 per vehicle to $2,661, TrueCar said. "New vehicle sector and segment preference indicates consumers are confident about the economy and their finances," TrueCar president John Krafcik said in a statement. Still, Morgan Stanley noted the robust sales did little to immediately impact automaker stock prices and suggested it might be a prime time to sell if sales reach the 18-million pace. "Perhaps the biggest reason may be that investors have seen this movie before," the firm wrote.

GM to idle car production at five factories as Americans continue CUV love affair

In case you needed another reminder that Americans have fallen out of love with sedans, General Motors today announced plans to idle five factories in January in a bid to cut its inventory to 70 days. Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly ( Buick LaCrosse, Cadillac CT6, Chevrolet Volt and Impala) and Fairfax Assembly in Kansas ( Chevy Malibu) will stop production for three weeks. Lansing Grand River ( Cadillac ATS and CTS, and Chevy Camaro) is going down for two weeks, while Lordstown, OH ( Chevy Cruze) and Bowling Green, KY ( Chevy Corvette) will go idle for a week each, Automotive News reports. GM's shutdown reflects a broader problem with the company's supply – at 847,000 vehicles, the company's supply increased unsteadily from a low of 629,000 units in January of 2016. That's more than a 25 percent increase in the past year. Citing information from Autodata, The Detroit News reports that at the end of November, GM had a 168-day supply of LaCrosses, 177 days' worth of Camaro, 170 days of Corvette, 121 days for Cruze, 119 days for ATS, 132 days for CTS, and 110 days of CT6. Meanwhile, inventory of the company's more popular vehicles is actually below the professionally accepted 60- to 70-day supply, The News reports. The Trax, Colorado pickup, and GM's full-size SUVs are sitting below 50 days and experiencing year-over-year sales increases. GM needs a rethink of its inventory levels, which is something that's apparently coming. "We're going to be responsible in managing our inventory levels," GM spokesman Jim Cain told The News. Another unnamed spokesman told Automotive News the company's day-to-day supplies would "fluctuate before moderating at year-end." But at least one analyst thinks this won't be the last time Detroit needs to stop production to level things out. "Incentives are elevated, residuals are declining, and rates are rising," Brian Johnson, an analyst with Barclays, told The News. "And while GM in particular may benefit in the months ahead from new product launches, it's important to recognize that GM's inventory is elevated at the moment, and it wouldn't surprise us if they need to announce another production cut – which could pressure the stock." Related Video: News Source: The Detroit News, Automotive News - sub. req.Image Credit: Paul Sancya / AP Plants/Manufacturing Buick Cadillac Chevrolet GM GMC Crossover SUV Sedan bowling green cadillac xt6 fairfax

Huge, pricey trucks haul jobs and profits for the Detroit Three

DECATUR, Texas — Mickey McMaster is on his 12th pickup truck. The 61-year old farm equipment dealer in Decatur, Texas, two weeks ago treated himself to a 2019 GMC Denali for around $69,000 — a reward for long hours at work. "For me this is the Cadillac of trucks, it's a real luxury vehicle," McMaster said. "I've worked my way up to afford a truck like this and it shows that I've earned it." McMaster is the kind of customer General Motors Co is banking on as it plans to add 1,000 jobs at a plant in Flint, Michigan that will build a new generation of its largest pickups. Demand from Texas and other heartland states for big pick-ups is providing a lifeline to many workers the No. 1 U.S. automaker is laying off at plants elsewhere. The Detroit Three automakers and thousands of their U.S. workers are counting on customers like McMaster to keep buying bigger and more luxurious pickup trucks even if overall U.S. vehicle demand weakens this year, as most analysts predict. At Flint, GM will build a new generation of its heavy-duty Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierras, including luxury models that are some of the most profitable vehicles on the planet. GM, Ford Motor Co and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Ram division own the segment and are each doubling down with new or redesigned models launching this year. Sales of heavy-duty pickups in the United States have grown to more than 600,000 vehicles a year, up more than 20 percent since 2013, according to industry data. Prices for luxury models can easily top $70,000. GM on Tuesday celebrated the launch of a new generation of heavy-duty GMC and Chevrolet pickups at the assembly plant in Flint, Michigan, that is now building all such trucks for the company. At the same time that GM is laying off thousands of U.S. workers and planning to shutter five North American factories, Flint is hiring. The plant runs on three daily shifts, six days a week. As the new model's assembly system ramps up, the plant's capacity will increase by more than 25 percent, plant manager Mike Perez told Reuters. The Flint plant plans to add 1,000 workers, more than half of the 1,500 factory workers who have asked to transfer from plants GM has targeted for shutdown as part of CEO Mary Barra's restructuring plan. "We're bringing in 50 to 100 people every week," said Perez. Workers last week were still finishing the job of retooling the Flint factory to build the new heavy-duty trucks as part of a $1.5 billion investment project.