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Weekly Recap: The implications of strong new car sales

New car sales are on a roll in the United States this year, and analysts are optimistic the industry will maintain its torrid pace. Sales increased 1.6 percent in May and reached an eye-popping seasonally-adjusted selling rate of 17.8 million, the strongest pace since July 2005, according TrueCar research. That positions the industry for one of its strongest years ever, as consumer confidence, low interest rates, low fuel costs, and an influx of new products propel gains. In addition to the positive economic factors, May also featured warmer weather across much of the US, an extra weekend, and it came on the heels of relatively weak April sales. Analysts suggest income tax refunds and the promise of summer driving and vacations also traditionally help May sales. "While 2015 will be one of the best years in the history of the US industry, in some ways it may be the very best ever," IHS Automotive analyst Tom Libby wrote in a commentary. "Not only are new vehicle registration volumes approaching the record levels of the early 2000s, but now registrations and production capacity are much more closely aligned so the industry is much more healthy." Capacity, an indicator of the auto sector's health, is also expected to grow. Morgan Stanley predicts it will eventually hit at least 20 million units per year, as many companies, including General Motors, Ford, Tesla, and Volvo are investing in new or upgraded factories. "The best predictor of US auto sales is the growth in capacity, and frankly, we're losing count of all of the additions – there's literally something new and big every week," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. Transaction prices, another telling indicator, also continue to show strength. They rose four percent in May to $32,452 per vehicle, and incentives dropped $10 per vehicle to $2,661, TrueCar said. "New vehicle sector and segment preference indicates consumers are confident about the economy and their finances," TrueCar president John Krafcik said in a statement. Still, Morgan Stanley noted the robust sales did little to immediately impact automaker stock prices and suggested it might be a prime time to sell if sales reach the 18-million pace. "Perhaps the biggest reason may be that investors have seen this movie before," the firm wrote.

GM to build outgoing Silverado and Sierra until late 2019

As it has done with previous generations, General Motors is keeping the outgoing versions of its 1500 pickups in production despite the arrival of the all-new 2019 Chevrolet Silverado and 2019 GMC Sierra. The production of the previous, K2 generation models will begin to be wound down gradually, according to Automotive News, starting with crew cabs "early next year," and double and regular cab models following during "the early second half of next year." The old model trucks will continue to be built into "late 2019" based on market demand, GM's spokesperson Kim Carpenter said. The Chevrolet will go by the name Silverado LD, with the GMC Sierra designation still to be announced. Some of the outgoing models are built by sharing the assembly work between two GM plants. Partially finished Silverado and Sierra double cab bodies are shipped from Fort Wayne, Ind., to Oshawa, Ont., where the trucks are completed, including receiving paint. This eases the workload in Fort Wayne, where production of the new T1 generation trucks started in July 2018. In January, the Silao plant in Mexico will take on the duties of building new generation regular cab and crew cab trucks. Carpenter also said that the "Oshawa shuttle," as the shared production is called, has been very successful. As a result, 60,000 more trucks will be built than what the original production forecast initially called for. GM's latest quarterly profits, disclosed last week to be $1 billion, have been far higher than expected and will result in full-year profits far higher than what had been predicted in light of steel tariffs. GM isn't the only truck maker taking a similar multi-generation approach for 2019. Both the outgoing and redesigned Ram 1500 are in production, with the previous generation being dubbed Ram 1500 Classic. Related Video:

GM delaying additional Silverado EV and Sierra EV production to Q4 2025

This looks like more "Gotcha!" news about storms in the EV sector, but the word "additional" is key here. The Detroit News reported today that GM is pushing delaying production of the Chevrolet Silverado EV and GMC Sierra EV pickups at the Orion Assembly Plant to late 2025, about a year behind expectations. The Silverado EV Work Truck is already in production at GM's Factory Zero in Detroit, which won't change. Retail versions of the Silverado EV are still planned for production at Factory Zero before the end of this year, and the Sierra EV is expected to enter production at Factory Zero early next year. This new plan simply means GM won't add more production of those electric trucks at Orion.  GM builds the Chevrolet Bolt at Orion right now, assembly of that groundbreaking car to end this year. GM's original idea was to spend $4 billion to convert Orion to EV pickup production in time to get its two giant profit makers rolling down lines in early 2025. The move to late 2025 could mean the plant is out of commission for about two years. The facility's 1,261 employees are being offered spots in other plants, including Factory Zero.  The automaker gave several reasons for the move, a spokesperson telling The Detroit News the company wants "to better manage capital investment while aligning with evolving EV demand," and telling the Detroit Free Press, "We're looking at EV demand and the trendline for EVs is stabilizing. ... It is not rising as fast as originally forecasted." On top of that, engineers "have identified engineering improvements that we will implement to increase the profitability of our products." The spokesperson also made it clear that the delay has nothing to do with the UAW strike, now in its 32nd day.  Factory Zero's working up to a near-term production capacity of about 600,000 units annually, GM saying it wanted to get capacity to 1 million EVs annually by the end of 2025. At the moment, the site builds the Silverado EV Work Truck, the GMC Hummer EV pickup and SUV, and the Cruise Origin shuttles — not the Bolt taxis, the autonomous pods. The Detroit News reported GM sold 18 Silverado EV Work Trucks in Q3 this year, GM Authority says GMC Hummer EV production has ramped up to about 3,000 units per month, and Cruise Origin is still waiting on approval from the National Highway Safety Traffic Administration to mass-produce the autonomous shuttles because the shuttles need an exemption for not having steering wheels.