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Weekly Recap: The implications of strong new car sales

New car sales are on a roll in the United States this year, and analysts are optimistic the industry will maintain its torrid pace. Sales increased 1.6 percent in May and reached an eye-popping seasonally-adjusted selling rate of 17.8 million, the strongest pace since July 2005, according TrueCar research. That positions the industry for one of its strongest years ever, as consumer confidence, low interest rates, low fuel costs, and an influx of new products propel gains. In addition to the positive economic factors, May also featured warmer weather across much of the US, an extra weekend, and it came on the heels of relatively weak April sales. Analysts suggest income tax refunds and the promise of summer driving and vacations also traditionally help May sales. "While 2015 will be one of the best years in the history of the US industry, in some ways it may be the very best ever," IHS Automotive analyst Tom Libby wrote in a commentary. "Not only are new vehicle registration volumes approaching the record levels of the early 2000s, but now registrations and production capacity are much more closely aligned so the industry is much more healthy." Capacity, an indicator of the auto sector's health, is also expected to grow. Morgan Stanley predicts it will eventually hit at least 20 million units per year, as many companies, including General Motors, Ford, Tesla, and Volvo are investing in new or upgraded factories. "The best predictor of US auto sales is the growth in capacity, and frankly, we're losing count of all of the additions – there's literally something new and big every week," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. Transaction prices, another telling indicator, also continue to show strength. They rose four percent in May to $32,452 per vehicle, and incentives dropped $10 per vehicle to $2,661, TrueCar said. "New vehicle sector and segment preference indicates consumers are confident about the economy and their finances," TrueCar president John Krafcik said in a statement. Still, Morgan Stanley noted the robust sales did little to immediately impact automaker stock prices and suggested it might be a prime time to sell if sales reach the 18-million pace. "Perhaps the biggest reason may be that investors have seen this movie before," the firm wrote.

May 2016: FCA wins, Ford and GM stumble on weak car volumes

The May 2016 sales numbers are in, and it looks as though FCA is getting some vindication for boldly cancelling two slow-selling car models. Meanwhile, Ford saw overall sales dip and GM's May volume took a big dive versus the same month in 2015. While Marchionne's decision to axe the Chrysler 200 and Dodge Dart has drawn criticism as being short-sighted, it's working for FCA so far. Although the Dart and 200 aren't out of production yet and no capacity has been shifted to crossover or trucks, May's numbers show that the emphasis on Jeep and Ram models makes sense right now. FCA's US sales rose 1 percent last month compared to May 2015, putting the year-to-date total at 955,186 vehicles, an increase of 6 percent compared to the same period last year. Standouts included the Jeep Renegade, Compass, and Patriot, and the Fiat 500X. Ram pickup sales were down 3 percent. And your fun fact is that Alfa Romeo sales were up precisely 10 percent, for a total of 44 4Cs sold versus 40 in the same month last year. At FoMoCo, the Ford brand took a hit to the tune of 6.4 percent from May 2015 to 2016, registering 226,190 sales last month. Lincoln showed improvement on its modest numbers, going from 9,174 to 9,807, a 6.9 percent increase. Overall, Ford was down 5.9 percent for the month to 235,997; despite the slump, year-to-date total Ford sales are up 4.2 percent to 1,112,939. Strong sellers included Escape, Expedition, F-Series, and Transit - big stuff. Most small and/or efficient models (Fiesta, Focus, Fusion, C-Max) saw sales slides. Fusion sales were also down, likely due to effects of model changeover to the freshened 2017 model. Ford has promised four new crossovers and SUVs by 2020 and if things keep trending this way the company will be able to sell them, but things could change in the next four years. GM saw the worst of it for domestic brands. Retail and fleet sales were down for each of the four divisions, with the May 2016 total dropping 18 percent to 240,450 vehicles. GM's year-to-date sales are down 5.0 percent in 2016 to 1,183,705. Both the Sierra and Silverado were down significantly, and the majority of Chevy, Buick, GMC, and Cadillac nameplates saw sales decreases, with both small cars and larger utilities included. Not even big stuff could help GM this month, it seems. We'll have more on the rest of the industry's May sales as those figures trickle in.

2016 Chevrolet Camaro powers up, slims down

Don't be fooled by its familiar appearance, the 2016 Chevrolet Camaro is vastly different than its iconic predecessors. It has a new chassis, a fresh engine lineup, and is loaded with clever technologies that promise to invigorate and improve the sixth generation of Chevy's legendary sports car. It was revealed Saturday before a crowd of enthusiastic Camaro revelers on Belle Isle in Detroit. Redesigning the sports coupe was a heady task, especially as its archrivals, the Ford Mustang and Dodge Challenger, drive better and are more powerful than ever. But the new Camaro is aiming to be the best combination of handling and raw performance, with quick acceleration and competitive fuel economy. "Redesigning the Camaro is thrilling and challenging all at once, but the secret is to offer something more," Mark Reuss, General Motors executive vice president of product development, said in a statement. It all began with a weight-loss plan. The new Camaro shed more than 200 pounds compared with the outgoing car, with 133 pounds coming from a lighter body-in-white. Then engineers culled weight nearly everywhere, using aluminum for the instrumental panel frame and some suspension components to trim as much fat as possible. The slimmer body rests on new bones. The Camaro's rear-wheel-drive platform is lighter and stiffer in a bid to improve handling. It's a modified version of the underpinnings used by the Cadillac ATS, though about 70 percent of the architecture is unique to the Camaro. Chevy said structural rigidity is improved by 28 percent. As you'll see, healthy doses of Cadillac and Corvette technologies have been used to bolster the Camaro's drive character and performance. The new car is also expected to handle better thanks to a slightly smaller footprint. It is about two inches shorter in length, with most of that due to the more compact wheelbase. It's also an inch shorter in height and an inch slimmer in width. So yes, the Camaro will be leaner, but it will still be plenty mean. The Camaro SS tops the range (for now) with the Corvette's 6.2-liter V8 pushing put 455 horsepower and 455 pound-feet of torque. Known as the LT1, is has a cast aluminum block and cast aluminum cylinder heads, and it's fortified with direct injection, variable valve timing, and cylinder deactivation. About 20 percent of the engine's parts are said to be unique to the Camaro, including the exhaust manifolds.