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Weekly Recap: The implications of strong new car sales

New car sales are on a roll in the United States this year, and analysts are optimistic the industry will maintain its torrid pace. Sales increased 1.6 percent in May and reached an eye-popping seasonally-adjusted selling rate of 17.8 million, the strongest pace since July 2005, according TrueCar research. That positions the industry for one of its strongest years ever, as consumer confidence, low interest rates, low fuel costs, and an influx of new products propel gains. In addition to the positive economic factors, May also featured warmer weather across much of the US, an extra weekend, and it came on the heels of relatively weak April sales. Analysts suggest income tax refunds and the promise of summer driving and vacations also traditionally help May sales. "While 2015 will be one of the best years in the history of the US industry, in some ways it may be the very best ever," IHS Automotive analyst Tom Libby wrote in a commentary. "Not only are new vehicle registration volumes approaching the record levels of the early 2000s, but now registrations and production capacity are much more closely aligned so the industry is much more healthy." Capacity, an indicator of the auto sector's health, is also expected to grow. Morgan Stanley predicts it will eventually hit at least 20 million units per year, as many companies, including General Motors, Ford, Tesla, and Volvo are investing in new or upgraded factories. "The best predictor of US auto sales is the growth in capacity, and frankly, we're losing count of all of the additions – there's literally something new and big every week," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. Transaction prices, another telling indicator, also continue to show strength. They rose four percent in May to $32,452 per vehicle, and incentives dropped $10 per vehicle to $2,661, TrueCar said. "New vehicle sector and segment preference indicates consumers are confident about the economy and their finances," TrueCar president John Krafcik said in a statement. Still, Morgan Stanley noted the robust sales did little to immediately impact automaker stock prices and suggested it might be a prime time to sell if sales reach the 18-million pace. "Perhaps the biggest reason may be that investors have seen this movie before," the firm wrote.

Chevy Volt replacement battery cost varies wildly, up to $34,000

There's a growing hubbub in the plug-in vehicle community over what looks like some ridiculously cheap replacement batteries for the Chevrolet Volt going up for sale. GM Parts Online, for example, is selling a replacement Volt battery with an MSRP of $2,994.64 but, with an online discount, the price comes down to $2,305.88. For the 16-kWh pack in the 2012 Volt, that comes to a very low $144.11 per kilowatt hour (kWH). But is it a real deal? How can it be, when a Chevy dealer may quote you a price of up to $34,000 to replace the pack? For a 16-kWh Volt pack, $2,305.88 comes to a very low $144.11 per kWh. But is it a real deal? Battery packs in alternative propulsion vehicles are usually priced by the kWh and, historically, they've been thought to be in the range of $500-per-kWh for OEM offerings. Since automakers are understandably secretive about their costs, we still don't know what the real number is today, but we do know it varies by automaker. Tesla, for example, has said it pays less than $200-per-kWH at the cell level but, of course, a constructed pack would be more. Whatever is going on, li-ion battery prices are trending downward. So, $144.11 certainly sounds great, but what's the story here? Kevin Kelly, manager of electrification technology communications for General Motors, reminded AutoblogGreen that GM Parts Online is not the official GM parts website and that, "the costs indicated on the site are not what we would charge our dealers or owners for a replacement battery. There would be no cost to the Volt owner if their battery needs replacement or repair while the battery is under the eight year/100,000 mile limited warranty coverage provided by Chevrolet." A single price tag also can't be accurate for everyone, Kelly said. "If the customer needs to have their battery repaired beyond the warranty, the cost to them would vary depending on what needs to be replaced or repaired (i.e. number of modules, which specific internal components need replacement, etc.)." he said. "So, it's hard for us to tell you exactly what the cost would be to the customer because it varies depending on what might need to be repaired/replaced. As a result, the core charge would vary." But, is the $2,300 price even accurate for anyone? Thanks to a reader comment, we see that this similar item on New GM Parts makes it look like the lithium-ion modules that Kelly mentioned – where a lot of the expensive bits are – are not included.

Ford GT dominates Le Mans qualifying, gets slapped with performance adjustment

Fifty years after Bruce McLaren and Chris Amon drove the Ford GT40 to victory at the 24 Hours of Le Mans, Ford is poised for a historic return to the Circuit de la Sarthe. The new Ford GT took the top two qualifying positions in the LMGTE Pro class, and four of the top five. Ferrari's 488 filled in the rest of the spots in the top seven, the first two from AF Corse. In other words, we're primed for a reboot of the classic Ford-Ferrari feud at this year's race. Or not, as the ACO, which organizes the 24 Hours of Le Mans, announced sweeping pre-race Balance of Performance (BOP) adjustments this morning that make this year's GT class anybody's race. In LMP1, last year's overall winner Porsche locked up the top two spots with the 919 Hybrid and will lead the entire field at race start. Toyota's two-car factory effort followed with qualifying times 1.004 and 2.170 seconds behind the pole lap. Audi rounds out the manufacturer-backed LMP1 class in fifth and sixth. Full qualifying results can be found here. The storyline for the GT cars is perfect - some say too perfect. Ford's class-leading times came after BOP adjustment to the Corvette Racing C7.R before qualifying. BOP is intended to level the playing field in the class by adjusting power, ballast, and fuel capacity. (Check out this explainer video for more, or even just if you love French accents.) But the process is riddled with unknowns and ripe for accusations of sandbagging. That is, if the Ford cars were intentionally slow in practice they could hope for BOP adjustment to improve their race chances. On the Corvette side, last year's GTE Pro winner went from the top of the field to the bottom, barely improving from practice to qualifying. If you think Le Mans is as rigged at the NBA Playoffs, well, it's not that simple. Because if Ford and Ferrari held back until qualifying - the eighth-place Porsche 911 RSR is three-and-a-half seconds off the class pole time - it was a pretty dumb strategy. This morning, the ACO tried to put things back in order by limiting the boost in the Ford GT's twin-turbo V6 and adding 11 pounds of ballast. Ferrari was also given extra weight but allowed more fuel capacity. The Corvette and Aston Martin teams were both given breaks on their air restrictors, which will allow their engines to make more power. Both Ford and Porsche also received extra fuel capacity.