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Weekly Recap: The implications of strong new car sales

New car sales are on a roll in the United States this year, and analysts are optimistic the industry will maintain its torrid pace. Sales increased 1.6 percent in May and reached an eye-popping seasonally-adjusted selling rate of 17.8 million, the strongest pace since July 2005, according TrueCar research. That positions the industry for one of its strongest years ever, as consumer confidence, low interest rates, low fuel costs, and an influx of new products propel gains. In addition to the positive economic factors, May also featured warmer weather across much of the US, an extra weekend, and it came on the heels of relatively weak April sales. Analysts suggest income tax refunds and the promise of summer driving and vacations also traditionally help May sales. "While 2015 will be one of the best years in the history of the US industry, in some ways it may be the very best ever," IHS Automotive analyst Tom Libby wrote in a commentary. "Not only are new vehicle registration volumes approaching the record levels of the early 2000s, but now registrations and production capacity are much more closely aligned so the industry is much more healthy." Capacity, an indicator of the auto sector's health, is also expected to grow. Morgan Stanley predicts it will eventually hit at least 20 million units per year, as many companies, including General Motors, Ford, Tesla, and Volvo are investing in new or upgraded factories. "The best predictor of US auto sales is the growth in capacity, and frankly, we're losing count of all of the additions – there's literally something new and big every week," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. Transaction prices, another telling indicator, also continue to show strength. They rose four percent in May to $32,452 per vehicle, and incentives dropped $10 per vehicle to $2,661, TrueCar said. "New vehicle sector and segment preference indicates consumers are confident about the economy and their finances," TrueCar president John Krafcik said in a statement. Still, Morgan Stanley noted the robust sales did little to immediately impact automaker stock prices and suggested it might be a prime time to sell if sales reach the 18-million pace. "Perhaps the biggest reason may be that investors have seen this movie before," the firm wrote.

2023 J.D. Power Initial Quality Study shows there's less quality than last year

Vehicle inventory, vehicle pricing, and the supply chain are finally showing improvement. Vehicle quality, on the other hand, is still going the wrong way. That's the takeaway from the 2023 J.D. Power Initial Quality Study that found overall problems exceeded last year's record high. The study surveyed owners of 2022-model-year vehicles to assess the average rate of problems per 100 vehicles (PP100) during the first 90 days of ownership. The average figure for the 32 ranked manufacturers in 2020 was about 166 problems per 100 vehicles. In the 2021 IQS, that dropped to an average of 162. For 2022, the average jumped to 180 problems. For 2023, the PP100 is up to an industry average of 192 — an increase of 30 problems per 100 vehicles in just two years. Let's get to the good news first: Dodge reclaimed the crown of having the lowest number of problems per 100 vehicles at 140. Buick won last year with 139 PP100, falling to third this year. Dodge was the first American automaker to top the IQS in 2021. Its return as the least problematic gives parent company Stellantis three wins in four years after Ram was crowned in 2021. It also gives U.S. brands a four-peat after Buick topped the chart in 2022 by having owners report the fewest problems. This year's top 10 is Dodge, Ram, Alfa Romeo, Buick, Chevrolet, GMC, Porsche, Cadillac, Kia, and Lexus. Stellantis gathered a few feathers for its cap, in fact. Maserati showed the largest improvement year-on-year, followed by Alfa Romeo, and Alfa Romeo posted the lowest PP100 among the premium class, beating Porsche and Cadillac. Alfa Romeo has been vocal about working to improve quality, mentioning Lexus as a target. Last year the Japanese brand finished sixth, the Italians finished near the bottom, between Jaguar and Mitsubishi. This year Alfa jumped to third, Lexus dropped to tenth. Ram was the third-best on the list of improvers from 2022 to 2023.   The individual model with the lowest PP100 is the Nissan Maxima. Now for the troublesome bits. In the words of Frank Hanley, senior director of auto benchmarking at J.D. Power, "The industry is at a major crossroad and the path each manufacturer chooses is paramount for its future.

Kurt Busch to shake and bake (again) in Ricky Bobby car at Talladega

Kurt Busch will channel Ricky Bobby for another NASCAR race, this time driving a Wonder-sponsored Chevrolet SS, in this weekend's Camping World RV Sales 500 at the Talladega Motor Speedway. Unlike past tie-ins, though, there's actually an element of sponsorship here (the "Me" car was done when Busch was running on a team without sponsorship).
It was arranged by Flower Foods, the new owner of the Wonder brand. Wonder was part of the bankrupt Hostess company, which temporarily exited the US market 2012, and set off the Great Twinkie Shortage.
Busch has made something of a habit of channeling characters from famous racing movies, most recently running Tom Cruise's City Chevrolet livery from Days of Thunder in a Nationwide Series race earlier this year. Busch kicked off his movie-inspired antics, though, at Talladega in 2012, when he raced El Diablo's ("It's like... Spanish for like a fighting chicken") "Me" car complete with a cougar on the hood. He even went so far as to channel the lovable idiot that is Ricky Bobby during the race, dropping a few catchphrases about macchiatos and slingshots.