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Weekly Recap: The implications of strong new car sales

New car sales are on a roll in the United States this year, and analysts are optimistic the industry will maintain its torrid pace. Sales increased 1.6 percent in May and reached an eye-popping seasonally-adjusted selling rate of 17.8 million, the strongest pace since July 2005, according TrueCar research. That positions the industry for one of its strongest years ever, as consumer confidence, low interest rates, low fuel costs, and an influx of new products propel gains. In addition to the positive economic factors, May also featured warmer weather across much of the US, an extra weekend, and it came on the heels of relatively weak April sales. Analysts suggest income tax refunds and the promise of summer driving and vacations also traditionally help May sales. "While 2015 will be one of the best years in the history of the US industry, in some ways it may be the very best ever," IHS Automotive analyst Tom Libby wrote in a commentary. "Not only are new vehicle registration volumes approaching the record levels of the early 2000s, but now registrations and production capacity are much more closely aligned so the industry is much more healthy." Capacity, an indicator of the auto sector's health, is also expected to grow. Morgan Stanley predicts it will eventually hit at least 20 million units per year, as many companies, including General Motors, Ford, Tesla, and Volvo are investing in new or upgraded factories. "The best predictor of US auto sales is the growth in capacity, and frankly, we're losing count of all of the additions – there's literally something new and big every week," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. Transaction prices, another telling indicator, also continue to show strength. They rose four percent in May to $32,452 per vehicle, and incentives dropped $10 per vehicle to $2,661, TrueCar said. "New vehicle sector and segment preference indicates consumers are confident about the economy and their finances," TrueCar president John Krafcik said in a statement. Still, Morgan Stanley noted the robust sales did little to immediately impact automaker stock prices and suggested it might be a prime time to sell if sales reach the 18-million pace. "Perhaps the biggest reason may be that investors have seen this movie before," the firm wrote.

Chevrolet Malibu could last until 2024 before joining the dodo

Automotive News pieced together all available intel on the Chevrolet and GMC lineups, trying to ascertain how much life each model might have left. Concerning the Chevrolet Malibu, the answer is not too much, and the historic nameplate's final years don't look like the glory kind. After a major overhaul in 2016 boosted sales for the ninth-generation sedan to 227,881 units, the 2018 sales fell to 144,542, and this year's are down almost 15% through the end of June. The Malibu is one of two Chevrolet sedans still breathing - the other being the Impala for now - but only for about five more years. AN says there'll likely be a refresh in 2022, followed by a visit from the Reaper in 2024. After that, it could be "indirectly replaced" by an electric vehicle, one of the 23 EVs that GM is working on for 2023.     The Impala will meet the ax earlier despite a recent stay of execution. Production is still set to close in January 2020. In the entire GM stable, Cadillac might soon be the only marque with sedans. The Buick LaCrosse has a date with death, and Groupe PSA won't supply Opels-as-Regals forever.  The Sonic hatchback should say goodbye at the end of 2020, a year before the seemingly eternal Spark is thought to die. Two years after that, according to one report, the Camaro will go back into cold storage, perhaps forever, and AN says an "expected redesign of the car in 2021 was reportedly canceled." Finally, let's give one final shout-out to the Chevrolet Cruze, a global nameplate, which in the United States alone outsells the Malibu, outsold the Camaro by a factor of three last year, and absolutely trounces the Impala, Sonic, and Spark. Even that couldn't get a stay of execution. In more uplifting news, everything's happening on the crossover and truck side in the next few years. The Chevy Bolt is due for a refresh next year, even though it has "become more important for self-driving ride-hailing fleets that GM Cruise plans to operate than for consumers." In 2021, the Bolt-based crossover should bow, first in China, then here. It's said to look like "a mix of the Bolt and Trax" in spy shots. Still waiting for a green light: a possible subcompact GMC crossover called Granite that might make it to market by 2023. The full-sized SUV triplets Tahoe, Suburban, and Yukon could show their new faces in 2020. The Silverado might get an updated interior in 2020 or 2021, while the Colorado and Canyon mid-sized pickups won't get attention until perhaps 2023.

Would you pay $17 a month to give your older Ford connectivity?

When it was first introduced in 2007, there was nothing like the original Ford Sync system, since it allowed car owners to connect and use a portable device better than anything that came before it. And because it was a brought-in/tethered and software-based system, Sync leveraged a device's connectivity and was easily updated. It took competitors awhile to catch up: Toyota Entune wasn't available until 2011, and Chevy MyLink didn't roll out until 2012. But now Ford is the one playing catchup since it stuck with the brought-in strategy while most other automakers were quicker to add connectivity via an embedded cellular modem. Ford initially installed 2G/3G modems in its small fleet of electric and plug-in electric vehicles starting in 2012 so that owners could keep tabs on charging. Embedded connectivity came to Lincoln in 2014, and Ford began adding onboard 4G LTE via Sync Connect to select cars starting with the Escape in 2015. To get more cars connected more quickly, last week the automaker rolled out its FordPass SmartLink solution that plugs into the OBD port of 2010 to 2017 model year vehicles. This lets owners retroactively get onboard Wi-Fi, set up a "geo-fence" to keep tabs on a car's location, receive vehicle health reports and allows remote engine starting and door locking/unlocking using a smartphone app, among other features. But to connect older Ford vehicles will cost owners $16.99 a month for two years, not including installation. Ford throws in 1 GB of data or a 30-day trial, whichever comes first, after which owners have to add the vehicle to their Verizon shared data plan, which supplies connectivity for SmartLink, or establish a new account. (Disclosure: Autoblog is owned by Verizon.) By comparison, GM's 4G LTE data plans start at $10 a month for 200 MB and goes up to $30 for 3 GB, and owners can also add a car to an AT&T shared-data plan. But OnStar doesn't have a separate monthly subscription for the embedded modem or an installation charge, and standard features via the RemoteLink Mobile App are free for the first five years of ownership. FCA's Uconnect Access service also uses an embedded modem to provide similar telematics features for $20 per month following a free one-year trial, while a la carte in-car Wi-Fi is offered for $10 per day, $20 per week or $35 per month.