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Weekly Recap: The implications of strong new car sales

New car sales are on a roll in the United States this year, and analysts are optimistic the industry will maintain its torrid pace. Sales increased 1.6 percent in May and reached an eye-popping seasonally-adjusted selling rate of 17.8 million, the strongest pace since July 2005, according TrueCar research. That positions the industry for one of its strongest years ever, as consumer confidence, low interest rates, low fuel costs, and an influx of new products propel gains. In addition to the positive economic factors, May also featured warmer weather across much of the US, an extra weekend, and it came on the heels of relatively weak April sales. Analysts suggest income tax refunds and the promise of summer driving and vacations also traditionally help May sales. "While 2015 will be one of the best years in the history of the US industry, in some ways it may be the very best ever," IHS Automotive analyst Tom Libby wrote in a commentary. "Not only are new vehicle registration volumes approaching the record levels of the early 2000s, but now registrations and production capacity are much more closely aligned so the industry is much more healthy." Capacity, an indicator of the auto sector's health, is also expected to grow. Morgan Stanley predicts it will eventually hit at least 20 million units per year, as many companies, including General Motors, Ford, Tesla, and Volvo are investing in new or upgraded factories. "The best predictor of US auto sales is the growth in capacity, and frankly, we're losing count of all of the additions – there's literally something new and big every week," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. Transaction prices, another telling indicator, also continue to show strength. They rose four percent in May to $32,452 per vehicle, and incentives dropped $10 per vehicle to $2,661, TrueCar said. "New vehicle sector and segment preference indicates consumers are confident about the economy and their finances," TrueCar president John Krafcik said in a statement. Still, Morgan Stanley noted the robust sales did little to immediately impact automaker stock prices and suggested it might be a prime time to sell if sales reach the 18-million pace. "Perhaps the biggest reason may be that investors have seen this movie before," the firm wrote.

Weekly Recap: Geneva's splendor reflects growing demand for ultra-luxury cars

Geneva is one of the most glittering auto shows in the world, but the list of high-powered and bespoke luxury cars was decadent this year even by the rich standards of the Swiss exhibition. It's great for enthusiasts to revel in the flame-throwing Aston Martin Vulcan, the racing-inspired elegance of the Bentley EXP 10 Speed 6 concept and the insane performance of the Lamborghini Aventador LP 750-4 Superveloce, but there's a reason for all of this opulence: the luxury market is big business. And it's growing. IHS Automotive forecasts that so-called ultra-premium sales will nearly triple this decade from 123,000 to 353,000 units around the world. The estimate includes brands like Aston Martin, Bentley, Ferrari and Rolls-Royce, but doesn't count BMW, Mercedes and Audi, which offer less expensive models in addition to their high-end flagships. Though IHS includes Porsche and its relatively large volume in the study, the ultra-premium segment is still set grow at about the same rate, even without the German automaker's figures. So what is propelling all of this growth in the most expensive segment of the auto industry? Put simply, there's more rich people. IHS Automotive principal analyst Tim Urquhart pointed to economic expansion in China, market recovery in the United States and a surge in the lucrative technology sector as contributing factors. This dovetails with a research report by UK-based Oxfam, an international relief organization, which found the world's richest one-percent owned 48 percent of global wealth in 2014, and it's expected to increase to more than 50 percent by 2016. View 17 Photos Carmakers are moving quickly to capitalize with new products, expanding their portfolios with low-volume speedsters like the 800-hp V12 Vulcan at Geneva, and plans to enter new segments, like Rolls-Royce's strategy to make an SUV. "Ultra-premium carmakers are looking to explore ways of growing their product offerings, and thus their bottom lines, in this most potentially profitable of segments," Urquhart wrote in a report on the Geneva show. In a nutshell, there are more choices for people with more money. It's a good time to have expensive taste. Other News & Notes 2016 Mazda MX-5 Miata production launches It won't be long now. The 2016 Mazda MX-5 Miata arrives later this year, and it's officially in production. Mazda announced this week that the roadster began rolling off the assembly line at its Ujina factory in Hiroshima, Japan.

GM recalls 200k Hummer H3s for fire risk

An issue with fires erupting in some Hummers has prompted General Motors and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to issue a recall for nearly 200,000 vehicles around the world. The bulk of them are in the United States. According to the first statement (below) obtained by Autoblog from GM, the issue stems from the HVAC system in Hummer H3 models. The connector module for the blower motor has, in certain cases, overheated, melted the surrounding plastic, and started a fire. 42 such cases have been reported, including three instances of occupants citing minor burns. GM confirms that two of those three cases lead to the vehicle being destroyed in the fire, but states that no crashes or fatalities have resulted. The issue affects 196,379 examples of the 2006-10 H3 wagon and the 2009-10 H3T pickup, with 164,993 estimated to be in the United States. In order to fix the issue, dealers are being instructed to replace the relevant parts of the connector and harness. In a second, unrelated campaign, GM is also calling in 50,731 Chevy Spark and Sonic small cars – 45,785 of them in the US – due to a software glitch. In those affected vehicles fitted with the base radio and OnStar system, the audio system may not be able to switch out of turn-by-turn direction mode, causing the display to go blank and all sound to mute – including key safety warnings. In addition, the system may not switch off, draining the battery. GM states that no crashes, injuries, or fatalities have resulted from this issue, and all that dealers will need to do in this case is reflash the software. Related Video: General Motors is recalling 164,993 2006-2010 model year HUMMER H3 and 2009-2010 model year HUMMER H3T models in the U.S. In certain vehicles, the connector module that controls the blower motor speed in the heat/vent/air conditioning (HVAC) system may overheat under extended periods of operation at high- and medium-high speeds. The heat could melt the plastic surrounding the connector module, increasing the risk of a fire. Dealers will replace the affected portion of the connector and harness. GM is aware of three reported minor burns and 42 fires but no crashes or fatalities related to this condition. Including Canada, Mexico and exports, the total recall population is 196,379. ### General Motors is recalling 45,785 2014-2015 model year Chevrolet Sparks, and 2015 model year Chevrolet Sonics in the U.S.