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How tariffs in China could cause a meltdown in the American South

While BMW is clearly a German company, the crossovers that are exceedingly important to it are actually made in Spartanburg, South Carolina. And more than that, the Spartanburg plant (physically located in the town of Greer) is where the corporate know-how and capability for those vehicles is concentrated. These are the vehicles – specifically, the BMW X3, X4, X5, X6, X7 – that drove record growth for the company in 2018, according to BMW. But whatÂ’s most notable about BMW Group Plant Spartanburg, given current events, is that according to the U.S. Department of Commerce it was the largest automotive exporter by value for the fifth year running in 2018. ThatÂ’s worth emphasizing: largest automotive exporter by value. Not GM. Not Ford. BMW. And where might one assume that more than a few of those X vehicles are shipped to? China. Some 360 miles southwest of Spartanburg is Mercedes-Benz U.S. International, Inc., in in Tuscaloosa County, Alabama. It started building vehicles in 1997. Since then, Daimler AG has invested in excess of $5.5 billion in the facility. It manufactures the crossover now known as the GLE, formerly the ML-Class. It also makes the GLE coupe and GLS. Daimler describes the Tuscaloosa facility as “the traditional home of SUV production” for those vehicles. When it reported its global 2018 sales, Daimler noted that on a global basis SUVs account “for more than a third of all Mercedes-Benz sales.” According to the Chinese finance ministry, on December 15th the Chinese government will impose a 25% tariff on automobiles (and a 5% tariff on auto parts) from the U.S. Certainly this is going to have a direct effect on the sales of vehicles that are manufactured in the U.S. and exported to China. BMW and Mercedes are going to take it on the chin for the vehicles that they make in plants that they invested in so heavily in the U.S. Which could potentially mean that people in places like Greer, South Carolina, and Vance, Alabama, are going to find themselves in the crosshairs of the combatants. Soo too could Lincoln, which produces vehicles in places like Louisville, Kentucky (Navigator), Chicago, Illinois (Aviator) and Flat Rock, Michigan (Continental). Although the Tesla Gigafactory 3 is rapidly nearing completion in Shanghai, it is worth noting that vehicles built in Fremont, California, are being sold in China in numbers that donÂ’t make Musk unhappy.

Trump prods General Motors over its auto plants in China

WASHINGTON — U.S. President Donald Trump, who is engaged in a trade war with Beijing, said on Friday that the largest U.S. automaker, General Motors, should begin moving its operations back to the United States. "General Motors, which was once the Giant of Detroit, is now one of the smallest auto manufacturers there. They moved major plants to China, BEFORE I CAME INTO OFFICE. This was done despite the saving help given them by the USA. Now they should start moving back to America again?" Trump said in a post on Twitter. Trump appeared to be referring to a Bloomberg News story that reported GM's hourly workforce of 46,000 U.S. workers has fallen behind that of Fiat Chrysler as the smallest of the Detroit Three automakers. Over the past four decades, GM has dramatically cut the size of its overall U.S. workforce, which numbered nearly 620,000 in 1979. GM did not directly comment on Trump's tweet. "GMÂ’s China operations are not a threat to U.S. jobs," the company said in a fact sheet, noting that its joint ventures have sent $16 billion in equity income to GM since 2010 and that it has invested $23 billion in U.S. operations since 2009. GM's U.S. hourly workforce has fallen by about 4,000 jobs since the end of 2018 to about where it was a decade ago. Trump's ire with GM comes as contract talks with the United Auto Workers union with the Detroit Three automakers intensify ahead of a Sept. 14 deadline. Trump has previously attacked GM for building vehicles in Mexico and for ending production at plants in Michigan, Ohio and Maryland and threatened to cut GM subsidies in retaliation. GM's decision to close four plants in the United States is a central issue in the contract talks. Trump has made boosting auto jobs a key priority and has often attacked automakers on Twitter for not doing enough to boost U.S. employment. His 2020 re-election bid will hinge on holding key industrial battleground states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan that narrowly voted for him in 2016. China is the worldÂ’s largest auto market, and government policy favors automakers assembling vehicles there, and not importing them from overseas. In response to TrumpÂ’s latest tariffs, China said last week it will reinstitute 25% tariffs on U.S.-made vehicles. The U.S. is imposing 15% tariffs on more than $125 billion in Chinese goods starting Sunday. GM sold 3.6 million vehicles in China last year accounting for 43% of its worldwide sales.

Buyers resent low inventories, prices over MSRP, study says

Vehicle inventory low, vehicle transaction prices high, customers fretting … welcome, J.D. Power, to the era of supply and demand. In a recently published survey from one of the auto industryÂ’s top analytical firms, findings show that customers' satisfaction with vehicle purchases in the United States this year has dipped for the first time in 10 years. The 2022 U.S. Sales Satisfaction Index (SSI) Study found that overall sales satisfaction has dropped to 786 (on a 1,000-point scale) from 789 in 2021. In that year, higher than expected trade-in values softened the effect of new vehicle price increases. But in 2022, on top of trade-in prices shrinking, many dealers elected to charge more than the ManufacturerÂ’s Suggested Retail Price, a factor that did not sit well with buyers. “When dealers charge more than MSRP, particularly with long-term loyal customers, they risk a potential long-term negative effect on customer advocacy and service business," said Chris Sutton, vice president of automotive retail at J.D. Power. Satisfaction among buyers who paid more than sticker price is 757, while satisfaction among those who paid the sticker price or less is 850, the Power report said. The lack of dealership inventory was also a customer irritant, J.D. Power found, a point that automakers and their dealers may want to consider. Many have maintained, or considered maintaining, a smaller inventory in the wake of the pandemic, keeping costs down and driving more customers toward factory orders. Regarding those consumers shopping for electric vehicles, the survey said that more than a third of them “failed to get instruction on EV charging before they left the dealership, which notably affects satisfaction.” Said Sutton, “Salespeople donÂ’t need to show gas-powered vehicle buyers how to fill their tank, but they do need to show EV buyers how to charge their vehicle.” There are positives to the Power conclusions, however, especially for Alfa Romeo dealers. The Italian brand ranked highest in customer satisfaction among premium brands with a score of 833, with Porsche a very close second (831) and Lexus (819) third. Alfa is on something of a roll these days, with its compact Tonale crossover due for release in the spring, and a new sports car in the works. Meanwhile, in PowerÂ’s “mainstream brand”” segment, Buick ranked first with a score of 825, followed by Dodge (816) and Subaru (804), all performing higher than the industry average.