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GM, Ford, Honda winners in 'Car Wars' study as industry growth continues

General Motors' plans to aggressively refresh its product lineup will pay off in the next four years with strong market share and sales, according to an influential report released Tuesday. Ford, Honda, and FCA are all poised to show similar gains as the auto industry is expected to remain healthy through the rest of the decade. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch study, called Car Wars, analyzes automakers' future product plans for the next four model years. By 2020, 88 percent of GM's sales will come from newly launched products, which puts it slightly ahead of Ford's 86-percent estimate. Honda (85 percent) and FCA (84 percent) follow. The industry average is 81 percent. Toyota checks in just below the industry average at 79 percent, with Nissan trailing at 76 percent. Car Wars' premise is: automakers that continually launch new products are in a better position to grow sales and market share, while companies that roll out lightly updated models are vulnerable to shifting consumer tastes. Though Detroit and Honda grade out well in the study, many major automakers are clumped together, which means large market-share swings are less likely in the coming years. Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts the industry will top out with 20 million sales in 2018 and then taper off, perhaps as much as 30 percent by 2026. Not surprisingly, trucks, sport utility vehicles and crossovers will be the key battlefield in the next few years, Car Wars says. FCA will launch a critical salvo in 2018 with a new Ram 1500, followed by new generations of the Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra in 2019, and then Ford's F-150 for 2020, according to the study. Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy said the GM trucks could be pulled ahead even earlier to 2018, prompting Ford to respond. "This focus on crossovers and trucks is a great thing for the industry," Murphy said. Cars Wars looks at Korean (76 percent replacement rate) and European companies more vaguely (70 percent), but argues their slower product cadence and lineups with fewer trucks puts them in weaker positions than their competitors through 2020. Related Video: This content is hosted by a third party. To view it, please update your privacy preferences. Manage Settings. Featured Gallery 2016 Chevrolet Silverado View 11 Photos Image Credit: Chevrolet Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Nissan Toyota study FCA

China's Great Wall confirms its interest — in Jeep, or all of FCA

HONG KONG/SHANGHAI — Chinese automaker Great Wall Motor reiterated its interest in Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV on Tuesday, but said it had not held talks or signed a deal with executives at the Italian-American automaker. China's largest sport utility vehicle manufacturer made a direct overture to Fiat Chrysler on Monday, with an official saying the company was interested in all or part of FCA, owner of the Jeep and Ram truck brands. Automotive News first reported the news, quoting Great Wall Motor President Wang Fengying as saying she planned to contact FCA to discuss acquiring the Jeep brand specifically. Those comments sent FCA shares higher but also raised questions over the ability of China's seventh-largest automaker by sales to buy larger Western rival FCA, or even Jeep, which some analysts value at as much as one-and-a-half times FCA. Great Wall sought to dampen speculation on Tuesday. It confirmed it had studied Fiat Chrysler, but said there was "no concrete progress so far" and "substantial uncertainty" over whether it would eventually bid. "The company has not built any relationship with the directors of FCA nor has the company entered into any discussion or signed any agreements with any officer of FCA so far," the company said in an English-language stock exchange filing. It did not give further detail. Fiat Chrysler stock dipped on the statement on Tuesday. Great Wall said trading in its Shanghai-listed shares would resume on Wednesday after having been suspended. Fiat Chrysler declined to comment on Great Wall's statement. On Monday, it said it had not been approached and was fully committed to implementing its current business plan. FLUSHING OUT RIVALS? Great Wall Motor, which was early to spot China's love of SUVs, had revenue of $14.8 billion last year and sold 1.07 million vehicles - but that compares with FCA's 2016 revenue of 111 billion euros ($130.6 billion). Analysts said Great Wall would need to raise both debt and equity to complete any deal, meaning its chairman Wei Jianjun could lose majority control. One possible scenario, according to analysts at Jefferies, would see Wei keeping a roughly 30 percent stake, while Great Wall would raise $10-$14 billion in debt and $10 billion in equity - hefty for a group currently worth just $16 billion. Ultimately, politics could be the clincher.

Fiat Chrysler and the UAW reach tentative labor deal

DETROIT — Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and the United Auto Workers (UAW) union on Saturday announced a tentative agreement for a four-year labor contract, a boost for the automaker as it works to merge with France's Groupe PSA. Italian-American Fiat Chrysler and PSA, the maker of Peugeot and Citroen, last month announced a planned $50 billion merger to create the world's fourth-largest automaker. The tentative agreement with Fiat Chrysler, which is subject to ratification by the union members, follows contracts that the UAW already concluded with Ford Motor Co and General Motors Co. The deal with GM followed a 40-day strike in the United States that virtually shuttered GM's North American operations and cost the automaker $3 billion. The UAW on Saturday said the contract with Fiat Chrysler included a commitment from FCA to invest $9 billion, creating 7,900 new jobs over the course of the four-year contract. Of the $9 billion, $4.5 billion was announced earlier this year, to be invested in five plants and creating 6,500 jobs. Detailed terms of the tentative agreement were not released, but they are expected to echo those under the new contracts with GM and Ford, as the UAW typically uses the first deal as a pattern for the others. "FCA has been a great American success story thanks to the hard work of our members," UAW acting President Rory Gamble said in a statement. "We have achieved substantial gains and job security provisions for the fastest growing auto company in the United States." Ratification is not a sure thing. Rank-and-file UAW members at FCA in 2015 rejected the first version of a contract. In addition, a lawsuit related to a federal corruption probe could also raise doubts among union members about the terms agreed. The federal corruption led GM to file a racketeering lawsuit against FCA, alleging that its rival bribed union officials over many years to corrupt the bargaining process and gain advantages, costing GM billions of dollars. FCA has brushed off the lawsuit as groundless. Under the UAW's deal with GM, the automaker agreed to invest $9 billion in the United States, including $7.7 billion directly in its plants, and to create or retain 9,000 UAW jobs. Ford's contract included commitments to invest more than $6 billion in its U.S. plants and to create or retain more than 8,500 UAW jobs. The deals with GM and Ford also created a pathway to full-time employment for temporary workers and left healthcare insurance coverage unchanged.