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Dealers mobilize to protect their margins from automaker subscription services

Six individual auto brands — Lincoln, Cadillac, Porsche, Mercedes, BMW and Volvo — have established or are trialing a vehicle subscription service in the U.S. Three third-party companies — Flexdrive, Clutch and Carma — run brand-agnostic subscription services. And three automakers — Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and General Motors — have also launched short-term rental services. Dealers, afraid of how these trends might affect their margins, are building political and lawmaking campaigns to protect their revenue streams. So far, three states are investigating automaker subscriptions, and Indiana has banned any such service until next year. It's certain that those three states are the first fronts in a long political and legal battle. Powerful dealer franchise laws mandate the existence of dealers and restrict how automakers are allowed to interact with customers to sell a vehicle. On top of that, Bob Reisner, CEO of Nassau Business Funding & Services, said, "Dealers and their associations are among the strongest political operators in many states. They as a group are difficult for state politicians to vote against." In California earlier this year, the state Assembly debated a bill with wide-ranging provisions to protect against what the California New Car Dealers Association called "inappropriate treatment of dealers by manufacturers." One of those provisions stipulated that subscription services need to go through dealers, but that item got stripped out when dealers and manufacturers agreed to discuss the matter further. In Indiana, Gov. Eric Holcomb signed a moratorium on all subscription programs by dealers or manufacturers until May 1, 2019, to give legislators more time to investigate. Dealers in New Jersey have taken their campaign to the state capitol, asking that the cars in subscription programs get a different classification for registration purposes. Automakers run the current subscription services and own the vehicles. Sign-ups and financial transactions happen online or through apps, leaving dealers to do little more than act as fulfillment centers to various degrees, with little legal recourse as to compensation amounts when they're called on to deliver or service a car. That's a bad base to build on for business owners who've sunk millions of dollars into their operations.

Mixed sales results, but automaker stocks rise on need for cars in Houston

DETROIT — The Big Three Detroit automakers on Friday reported better-than-expected August sales and issued optimistic outlooks for demand as residents of the Houston area replace flood-damaged cars and trucks after Hurricane Harvey, sending their stocks higher. General Motors, Ford and Fiat Chrysler posted mixed August U.S. sales, with GM up 7.5 percent and Ford and Fiat Chrysler down. Japanese automaker Toyota improved sales by nearly 7 percent, while Honda fell 2.4 percent. Still, analysts focused on the potential for Detroit automakers to cut inventories and stabilize used vehicle prices as residents of Houston, the fourth largest city in the United States, are forced to replace tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands, of vehicles after the devastation from Hurricane Harvey. Mark LaNeve, Ford's U.S. sales chief, told analysts on Friday that following Hurricane Katrina in 2005 "we saw a very dramatic snapback" in demand. That said, Ford sales fell 2.1 percent in August. It sold 209,897 vehicles in the United States, compared with 214,482 a year earlier. Sales were down 1.9 percent in the Ford division and off 5.8 percent at Lincoln. Demand was down for cars, crossovers and SUVs. It was not clear how many vehicles in the Houston area will be scrapped, LaNeve said, saying he had seen estimates ranging from 200,000 to 400,000 to 1 million. Ford's Houston dealers may have lost fewer than 5,000 vehicles in inventory, he said. Ford is the No. 1 automaker in the Houston market, with 18 percent share, according to IHS Markit. The company plans to ship used vehicles to Houston dealers and has "every indication we would have to add some production" of new vehicles to meet demand, LaNeve said. Investor concerns about inventories of unsold vehicles and falling used car prices have weighed on Detroit automakers' shares most of this year. Now, automakers can anticipate a jolt of demand from a big market that is a stronghold for Detroit brand trucks and SUVs. "It's got to be a positive for the industry," LaNeve said. Investors appeared to agree. GM shares rose as much as 3.3 percent to their highest since early March. Ford increased 2.8 percent at $11.34, and Fiat Chrysler's U.S.-traded shares were up 5.2 percent $15.91, hitting their highest in more than five years. GM reported a 7.5 percent increase in U.S. auto sales in August, helped by robust sales of crossovers across its four brands.

Trucks and tidbits from GM's earnings report

General Motors announced this morning that 2018 was a good year for it financially, thanks in large part to the company's performance in North America, which was predicated, according to the company, on "strong pricing, surging crossover sales, successful execution of the company's full-size truck launch, growth of GM Financial earnings, and disciplined cost control." GM reported full-year income of $8.1 billion and EBIT-adjusted income of $11.8 billion. Crossover sales in 2018 were 1,034,808, an increase of 7 percent compared to 2017 deliveries. Throw in the body-on-frame SUVs and the ute number is a total 1,295,700. But let's face it: It is the trucks that really matter. The Chevy Silverado and Colorado, the GMC Sierra and Canyon. Altogether, GM sold 973,463 pickups in the U.S. in 2018. Although Ford gets bragging rights for F-Series sales, GM gets to point out that it has a greater aggregate number. An important factor regarding the trucks and the reported income is that during the last quarter, more than 90 percent of the new 2019 trucks were crew cabs (which have a higher sticker), and at GMC more than 70 percent were Denali and AT4 models (which have even higher stickers). According to reporting by Bloomberg, GM's pickup trucks combine for $65 billion in annual revenue. Clearly when the 2018 sales of the Silverado — 585,581— dwarf the combined sales of both Buick (206,863) and Cadillac combined (154,702), pickups are what matter to the overall health of the company in a way that it is difficult to otherwise achieve. The "disciplined cost control" is something that is very much in the public eye right now, as the company is taking out thousands of its workers, and there is still the "unallocated" plant situation and other plants that will remain under capacity. The numbers in GM's earnings report probably made Unifor members' heads explode in consternation, coming fresh off their Super Bowl ad: " GM, you may have forgotten our generosity, but we'll never forget your greed." But there are a couple of curiosities in the full GM earnings release. One is that so far as its autonomous efforts go, it mentions only that (1) in the first quarter of 2018 Cruise introduced a production-ready autonomous vehicle, and (2) Cruise attracted $5 billion in external capital from SoftBank and Honda. Not a whole lot of love for autonomy. Good thing they have the trucks to fund the program, to say nothing of the external capital.